Global Reinsurers Stand Strong Amid Investment Volatility And Natural Disasters
Apr 10, 2025 -… Another key focus area is claims costs, which may be influenced by the announced tariffs. Current equity market volatility follows an already bumpy start to the year, with the January 2025 California wildfires resulting in estimated industry insured losses of up to $50 billion. …
Robust Capital Supports North American Insurers Amid Market Volatility
Apr 9, 2025 -… While diversified, insurers’ investment portfolios are exposed to equity market volatility through their equity investments. ...Chart 5 Health Downside equity market volatility will dampen the capitalization of certain health insurers, predominantly not-for-profit and mutual companies, which have up to 25%-30% of their invested assets in equity securities. ...Potential capital deterioration from equity market volatility comes at a difficult time for the sector. …
Credit Cycle Indicator Q2 2025: Macro Headwinds Could Hinder Credit Recovery
Mar 20, 2025 -… While changes in government policies and uncertainty around them are not directly incorporated by the CCI, they will likely contribute to higher-for-longer borrowing costs, equity market volatility, and potential capital outflows from EMs. …
Default, Transition, and Recovery: The U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate Could Fall To 3.5% By December 2025
Feb 20, 2025 -… Credit indicators remain largely stable U.S. unemployment rate (%) Fed survey on lending conditions Industrial production (Y/Y % change) Slope of the yield curve (10 year - 3 month) (bps) Corporate profits (nonfinancial) (Y/Y % change) Equity market volatility (VIX) High-yield spreads (bps) NA CDX (bps) Interest burden (%) S&P Global Ratings distress ratio (%) S&P Global Ratings U.S. …
An Update On Securities Firm Anchors By Country (February 2025)
Feb 14, 2025 -… For instance, China's securities firm anchor was formerly two notches below its bank anchor, largely to reflect its very high equity market volatility; only moderately broad and deep debt capital markets; and tight regulatory limits on securities firms' activities, risk, and leverage. ...Similarly, securities firms' economic risks may exceed those of banks because they are exposed to equity market volatility and dependent on market liquidity to monetize their assets. …
Default, Transition, and Recovery: U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate To Fall Further To 3.25% By September 2025
Nov 15, 2024 -… YoY) Slope of the yield curve (10 year - 3 month; bps) Corporate profits (nonfinancial; % chg. YoY) Equity Market Volatility (VIX) High yield spreads (bps) NA CDX (bps) Interest burden (%) S&P Global distress ratio (%) S&P Global U.S. …
Asia-Pacific Financial Institutions Monitor 3Q 2024: A Choppier Ride For The Rest Of The Year
Aug 21, 2024 -… It does adds a worrisome layer of complexity however for financial institutions already challenged across a range of risk factors. Equity market volatility has been particularly acute in Japan, Korea and Taiwan. ...The broker sector stands out as clients get hit by margin calls on days of peak equity market volatility testing brokers' risk management capabilities. …
Default, Transition, and Recovery: The U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate Will Continue Its Descent, Reaching 3.75% By June 2025
Aug 19, 2024 -… Table 2 Credit indicators offer some mixed signals, but they remain largely stable U.S. unemployment rate (%) Fed survey on lending conditions* Industrial production, year-on-year change (%) Slope of the yield curve (bps)§ Corporate profits, nonfinancial, year-on-year change (%) Equity market volatility, VIX High-yield spreads (bps) NA CDX (bps) Interest burden (%) S&P Global Ratings' distress ratio (%) S&P Global Ratings' U.S. …
Default, Transition, and Recovery: Resilient Growth, Resilient Yields, And Resilient Defaults To Bring The U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate To 4.5% By March 2025
May 16, 2024 -… YoY) Slope of the yield curve (10yr - 3m; bps) Corporate profits (nonfinancial; %chg. YoY) Equity market volatility (VIX) High yield spreads (bps) Q1 2019 3.8 2.8 0.6 1 4.7 13.7 385.2 Q2 2019 3.6 (4.2) (0.7) (12) 3.7 15.1 415.6 Q3 2019 3.5 (2.8) (1.5) (20) 7.2 16.2 434.1 Q4 2019 3.6 5.4 (2.0) 37 4.8 13.8 399.7 Q1 2020 4.4 0.0 (5.0) 59 (6.2) 53.5 850.2 Q2 2020 11.1 41.5 (10.7) 50 (16.9) 30.4 635.9 Q3 2020 7.8 71.2 (6.5) 59 7.5 26.4 576.9 Q4 2020 6.7 37.7 (3.8) 84 (2.8) 22.8 434.4 Q1 2021 6.0 5.5 0.5 171 20.4 19.4 390.8 Q2 2021 5.9 (15.1) 8.7 140 45.5 15.8 357.3 Q3 2021 4.8 (32.4) 3.4 148 7.0 23.1 357.1 Q4 2021 3.9 (18.2) 3.0 146 18.0 17.2 350.8 Q1 2022 3.6 (14.5) 4.4 180 4.0 20.6 346.1 Q2 2022 3.6 (1.5) 3.2 126 4.5 28.7 546.1 Q3 2022 3.5 24.2 4.5 50 7.9 31.6 481.4 Q4 2022 3.5 39.1 0.6 (54) 7.1 21.7 414.8 Q1 2023 3.5 44.8 0.2 (137) 3.6 18.7 414.9 Q2 2023 3.6 46.0 (0.4) (162) (4.1) 13.6 355.5 Q3 2023 3.8 50.8 (0.2) (96) (2.1) 17.5 344.0 Q4 2023 3.7 33.9 1.1 (152) 3.8 12.5 297.9 Q1 2024 3.8 14.5 (0.0) (126) 13.0 247.1 NA CDX (bps) Interest burden (%) S&P Global Ratings distress ratio (%) S&P Global Ratings U.S. speculative-grade neg. bias (%) Ratio of downgrades to total rating actions* (%) Proportion of speculative-grade initial issuer ratings B- or lower (%) U.S. weakest links (#) Q1 2019 349 11.3 7.0 19.8 73.3 40.8 150 Q2 2019 324 11.2 6.8 20.3 67.3 41.7 167 Q3 2019 350 10.8 7.6 21.4 81.5 37.7 178 Q4 2019 281 10.4 7.5 23.2 81.0 39.6 195 Q1 2020 658 10.4 35.2 37.1 89.9 54.8 316 Q2 2020 516 10.2 12.7 52.4 94.6 72.1 429 Q3 2020 409 8.3 9.5 47.5 63.3 46.2 390 Q4 2020 293 8.5 5.0 40.4 50.0 57.9 339 Q1 2021 308 7.9 3.4 29.9 30.6 49.5 265 Q2 2021 274 7.3 2.3 20.6 24.1 42.2 191 Q3 2021 302 7.3 2.6 16.0 27.3 36.5 155 Q4 2021 292 7.2 2.6 14.1 34.5 33.3 131 Q1 2022 376 6.9 2.7 12.5 36.0 30.4 121 Q2 2022 578 6.4 9.2 13.8 46.9 45.5 127 Q3 2022 609 6.0 6.0 16.7 57.8 50.0 144 Q4 2022 485 5.7 7.9 19.1 76.0 71.4 195 Q1 2023 463 5.5 9.2 20.2 61.0 75.0 299 Q2 2023 430 4.6 7.2 19.8 63.4 56.7 207 Q3 2023 481 3.8 6.5 21.7 60.2 38.8 229 Q4 2023 356 3.7 5.9 21.7 66.0 48.6 228 Q1 2024 329 4.9 20.8 52.0 34.3 212 CHYA--Change from a year ago. …
Default, Transition, and Recovery: U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate To Hit 4.75% By December 2024 After Third-Quarter Peak
Feb 15, 2024 -… YoY) Slope of the yield curve (10yr - 3m; bps) Corporate profits (nonfinancial; %chg. YoY) Equity market volatility (VIX) High yield spreads (bps) NA CDX Interest burden (%) S&P distress ratio (%) S&P Global U.S. …
Global Reinsurers Stand Strong Amid Investment Volatility And Natural Disasters
Apr 10, 2025 -… Another key focus area is claims costs, which may be influenced by the announced tariffs. Current equity market volatility follows an already bumpy start to the year, with the January 2025 California wildfires resulting in estimated industry insured losses of up to $50 billion. …
Robust Capital Supports North American Insurers Amid Market Volatility
Apr 9, 2025 -… While diversified, insurers’ investment portfolios are exposed to equity market volatility through their equity investments. ...Chart 5 Health Downside equity market volatility will dampen the capitalization of certain health insurers, predominantly not-for-profit and mutual companies, which have up to 25%-30% of their invested assets in equity securities. ...Potential capital deterioration from equity market volatility comes at a difficult time for the sector. …
Credit Cycle Indicator Q2 2025: Macro Headwinds Could Hinder Credit Recovery
Mar 20, 2025 -… While changes in government policies and uncertainty around them are not directly incorporated by the CCI, they will likely contribute to higher-for-longer borrowing costs, equity market volatility, and potential capital outflows from EMs. …
Default, Transition, and Recovery: The U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate Could Fall To 3.5% By December 2025
Feb 20, 2025 -… Credit indicators remain largely stable U.S. unemployment rate (%) Fed survey on lending conditions Industrial production (Y/Y % change) Slope of the yield curve (10 year - 3 month) (bps) Corporate profits (nonfinancial) (Y/Y % change) Equity market volatility (VIX) High-yield spreads (bps) NA CDX (bps) Interest burden (%) S&P Global Ratings distress ratio (%) S&P Global Ratings U.S. …
An Update On Securities Firm Anchors By Country (February 2025)
Feb 14, 2025 -… For instance, China's securities firm anchor was formerly two notches below its bank anchor, largely to reflect its very high equity market volatility; only moderately broad and deep debt capital markets; and tight regulatory limits on securities firms' activities, risk, and leverage. ...Similarly, securities firms' economic risks may exceed those of banks because they are exposed to equity market volatility and dependent on market liquidity to monetize their assets. …
Default, Transition, and Recovery: U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate To Fall Further To 3.25% By September 2025
Nov 15, 2024 -… YoY) Slope of the yield curve (10 year - 3 month; bps) Corporate profits (nonfinancial; % chg. YoY) Equity Market Volatility (VIX) High yield spreads (bps) NA CDX (bps) Interest burden (%) S&P Global distress ratio (%) S&P Global U.S. …
Asia-Pacific Financial Institutions Monitor 3Q 2024: A Choppier Ride For The Rest Of The Year
Aug 21, 2024 -… It does adds a worrisome layer of complexity however for financial institutions already challenged across a range of risk factors. Equity market volatility has been particularly acute in Japan, Korea and Taiwan. ...The broker sector stands out as clients get hit by margin calls on days of peak equity market volatility testing brokers' risk management capabilities. …
Default, Transition, and Recovery: The U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate Will Continue Its Descent, Reaching 3.75% By June 2025
Aug 19, 2024 -… Table 2 Credit indicators offer some mixed signals, but they remain largely stable U.S. unemployment rate (%) Fed survey on lending conditions* Industrial production, year-on-year change (%) Slope of the yield curve (bps)§ Corporate profits, nonfinancial, year-on-year change (%) Equity market volatility, VIX High-yield spreads (bps) NA CDX (bps) Interest burden (%) S&P Global Ratings' distress ratio (%) S&P Global Ratings' U.S. …
Default, Transition, and Recovery: Resilient Growth, Resilient Yields, And Resilient Defaults To Bring The U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate To 4.5% By March 2025
May 16, 2024 -… YoY) Slope of the yield curve (10yr - 3m; bps) Corporate profits (nonfinancial; %chg. YoY) Equity market volatility (VIX) High yield spreads (bps) Q1 2019 3.8 2.8 0.6 1 4.7 13.7 385.2 Q2 2019 3.6 (4.2) (0.7) (12) 3.7 15.1 415.6 Q3 2019 3.5 (2.8) (1.5) (20) 7.2 16.2 434.1 Q4 2019 3.6 5.4 (2.0) 37 4.8 13.8 399.7 Q1 2020 4.4 0.0 (5.0) 59 (6.2) 53.5 850.2 Q2 2020 11.1 41.5 (10.7) 50 (16.9) 30.4 635.9 Q3 2020 7.8 71.2 (6.5) 59 7.5 26.4 576.9 Q4 2020 6.7 37.7 (3.8) 84 (2.8) 22.8 434.4 Q1 2021 6.0 5.5 0.5 171 20.4 19.4 390.8 Q2 2021 5.9 (15.1) 8.7 140 45.5 15.8 357.3 Q3 2021 4.8 (32.4) 3.4 148 7.0 23.1 357.1 Q4 2021 3.9 (18.2) 3.0 146 18.0 17.2 350.8 Q1 2022 3.6 (14.5) 4.4 180 4.0 20.6 346.1 Q2 2022 3.6 (1.5) 3.2 126 4.5 28.7 546.1 Q3 2022 3.5 24.2 4.5 50 7.9 31.6 481.4 Q4 2022 3.5 39.1 0.6 (54) 7.1 21.7 414.8 Q1 2023 3.5 44.8 0.2 (137) 3.6 18.7 414.9 Q2 2023 3.6 46.0 (0.4) (162) (4.1) 13.6 355.5 Q3 2023 3.8 50.8 (0.2) (96) (2.1) 17.5 344.0 Q4 2023 3.7 33.9 1.1 (152) 3.8 12.5 297.9 Q1 2024 3.8 14.5 (0.0) (126) 13.0 247.1 NA CDX (bps) Interest burden (%) S&P Global Ratings distress ratio (%) S&P Global Ratings U.S. speculative-grade neg. bias (%) Ratio of downgrades to total rating actions* (%) Proportion of speculative-grade initial issuer ratings B- or lower (%) U.S. weakest links (#) Q1 2019 349 11.3 7.0 19.8 73.3 40.8 150 Q2 2019 324 11.2 6.8 20.3 67.3 41.7 167 Q3 2019 350 10.8 7.6 21.4 81.5 37.7 178 Q4 2019 281 10.4 7.5 23.2 81.0 39.6 195 Q1 2020 658 10.4 35.2 37.1 89.9 54.8 316 Q2 2020 516 10.2 12.7 52.4 94.6 72.1 429 Q3 2020 409 8.3 9.5 47.5 63.3 46.2 390 Q4 2020 293 8.5 5.0 40.4 50.0 57.9 339 Q1 2021 308 7.9 3.4 29.9 30.6 49.5 265 Q2 2021 274 7.3 2.3 20.6 24.1 42.2 191 Q3 2021 302 7.3 2.6 16.0 27.3 36.5 155 Q4 2021 292 7.2 2.6 14.1 34.5 33.3 131 Q1 2022 376 6.9 2.7 12.5 36.0 30.4 121 Q2 2022 578 6.4 9.2 13.8 46.9 45.5 127 Q3 2022 609 6.0 6.0 16.7 57.8 50.0 144 Q4 2022 485 5.7 7.9 19.1 76.0 71.4 195 Q1 2023 463 5.5 9.2 20.2 61.0 75.0 299 Q2 2023 430 4.6 7.2 19.8 63.4 56.7 207 Q3 2023 481 3.8 6.5 21.7 60.2 38.8 229 Q4 2023 356 3.7 5.9 21.7 66.0 48.6 228 Q1 2024 329 4.9 20.8 52.0 34.3 212 CHYA--Change from a year ago. …
Default, Transition, and Recovery: U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate To Hit 4.75% By December 2024 After Third-Quarter Peak
Feb 15, 2024 -… YoY) Slope of the yield curve (10yr - 3m; bps) Corporate profits (nonfinancial; %chg. YoY) Equity market volatility (VIX) High yield spreads (bps) NA CDX Interest burden (%) S&P distress ratio (%) S&P Global U.S. …